All the elements were there........

All the elements  to expalin the support for Leave were there in the run up to the referendum. . See the entries in my blog in each case

The entry   "Tensions in the European Union."

Mr Donald Tusk, President of the EU Council of Ministers, sets out very clearly how the elite of Europe have left many electorates behind in pursuing the European idea. And the growing distrust of the elite on these grounds  (but the refugee crisis also played a large part ) has led to the growth of anti-EU votes in many countries, Brexit has brought this fact to the fore.

The entry  "Jefferson and harmony, and immigration "

At the same time the elite in the United Kingdom have specifically encouraged the acceptance of more refugees,  ignoring the fact that it is not their streets but the poorer streets of the country which see their culture  threatened.

The entry   "Who will vote for Remain and who for Leave"

The result of these considerations ( but see below)  is shown in this survey -  an  overwhelming support by the less well educated  - and therefore less affluent -  for quitting the EU. It is noticeable also from this survey that the other group supporting Leave is the section of the population that is aging, As one of my correspondents in Germany has said, these two groups have nothing to lose.

The entry  " Most politicians are the same  -  but some are dangerously not"
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People generally in all countries distrust politicians and all the elite. As a result the advice from nearly all expert opinion to vote Remain had if anything a contrary effect. This foolish attitude is the result of an apparent  transfer of responsibility - the problems facing the United Kingdom and many countries have no solutions, they can only be managed, and they run on  and on and on. The politicians are blamed for not delivering - but they cannot deliver, and it is not their fault.. Intelligent people who pay attention to the problems can see that, but many cannot. So even without the specific distrust of the elite on the grounds of EU ambition or immigration the referendum was an opportunity to register a protest against the world and against the elite who were ignoring them.

Conclusion

The majority for Leave was achieved by  a protest vote. Protest votes can be useful in many contexts in reminding our leaders of the views of ordinary people. - but not in a vote which has dramatic consequences . If the result had been decisive one could have said that there was a genuine view in favour of Leave as well as a protest. But as it is with such a narrow result the protest element can only be regarded as an invalid contribution to the victory of Leave. It is essential that the House of Commons uses its constitutional powers ( the referendum is not binding) to upset the referendum's conclusion. If the Commons were to use the vast majority it has for Remain to over ride the referendum result there would be cries of dissent. A second referendum would mostly avoid that reaction and might be the most democratic way to proceed. Staying with the results of the first referendum is on the other hand a corruption of democracy.

Jefferson and harmony, and immigration

When President Kennedy entertained the American winners of Nobel prizes  at the White House, he remarked that there had never been such a brilliant assembly in the room  since Thomas Jefferson dined  alone. Jefferson was indeed a brilliant polymath, as one can see from the house he built., and  in his first Inaugural Address he set out his views on human society, a society ( one can add) based over the years on the arrival of immigrants from many countries.

"Let us, then, fellow citizens,unite with one heart and one.mind. Let us restore to social intercourse that harmony and affection without which liberty and even life itself are but dreary things"

High flown language, suitable to an Inauguration Address, but true. True for high intellects and people of adequate substance,  for whom such harmony and affection are most usually in their own hands. But for those more constrained let us look at the way immigration can affect a society,  in an analysis by Professor Putman of Northwestern University

" Increases in ethnic diversity lead to collapses of civic health. Trust amongst neighbours declines, as does voting, charitable giving and volunteering........As community cohesion weakens, moral norms change. What would have been unacceptable behaviour in a more homogenous national community becomes tolerable when a formerly ascendant group seems itself at risk from aggressive new claims by new competitors"

The aspirations declared  as so central by Jefferson are also there in lives in the poorer streets and in  the less upwardly mobile. The advent of people of other kinds and cultures  makes it difficult to unite with one heart and one mind as Jefferson recommends. And if such people have not yet arrived in every street those living there can imagine what will happen if they do.

The so sadly late Jo Cox MP in her  splendid Maiden Speech painted a picture of multiculturism that has worked. So it can. But the problems need to be understood and overcome.  I am not impressed when Bishops and Barristers and Actors preach that the Government should be humane and welcome more and more immigrants. One could say that they will benefit with better servants and waiters and barmen. That will assist their pursuit  of Jefferson's harmony and affection in their lives, but they should not preach without considering the need to pursue harmony and affection for all of us.

Tensions in the European Union - but a clear steer on how to vote

Donald Tusk, the Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the European Union, is a Pole. The Poles, in my  direct experience, were very anxious to embrace every aspect of the EU as soon as possible after the collapse of communism, demonstrating a clear fear of a expansionist Russia. I thought in those years that they had overlooked a change in history, but they have been proved right. And Mr Tusk is right about other things as well

At the European Business Summit,  and at the event marking the 40th anniversary of the European People's Party (EPP),  he said -

"There is no worse prospect for the European economy than the omen of a triumph of anti-liberal and Eurosceptic political forces, whether of left or right.We must and can avoid this scenario. The condition is to depart from utopian dreams and move on to practical activities, such as for instance reinforcing the EU's external borders or consistently completing the Banking Union.   Forcing lyrical and in fact naive Euro-enthusiastic visions of total integration, regardless of the obvious good will of their proponents, is not a suitable answer to our problems. Firstly because it is simply not possible, and secondly because - paradoxically - promoting them only leads to the strengthening of Eurosceptic moods, not only in the UK. As one of the key players of European integration Hubert Vedrine recently said    'You see governments and parties all over jumping up and down asking for  "more Europe, more Europe'- and Vedrine added -  'If you want people to massively reject Europe, just keep on [jumping] ' " [European Business Summit]

" ,,,,It is us who today are responsible for confronting reality with all kinds of utopias. A utopia of Europe without nation states, a utopia of Europe without conflicting interests and ambitions, a utopia imposing its own values on the external world.  Obsessed by the idea of instant and total integration, we failed to notice that ordinary people did not share our Euro-enthusiasm....And increasingly louder are those who question the very principle of a united Europe.The spectre of a break up is haunting Europe and a vision of a federation does not seem to me the best answer to it. We need to understand the historical moment " [EPP]

 It is difficult to disagree with Mr Tusk.. Had those in leadership positions taken care to take practical steps, and to listen to their electorates, Europe would have progressed, more slowly,  but more practically, and in a popular way. Yet still there are those who are desperate to cling to the "Idea of Europe". A year or so ago the Ambassador of Greece ( Greece ! ) to the United Kingdom  said twice in a short speech that " the EU had been a success " There seems to be a reluctance on behalf of the pro-Europe people to admit in particular that the Euro has been a disaster - perhaps the main example of political excitement overriding simple economic truths.  This heightened discussion by Mr Tusk and others has been accelerated by the possibility of Brexit. The forces against the EU are surging in most European countries ( close run thing in Austria),  represented by parties whose policies in other areas are sometimes dangerous, and they have been encouraged by developments in the UK . The tensions are severe, and break up is discussed

 As regards the UK the intellectual and moral positions on the Brexit side are even less attractive than the attitudes I criticise above. It is a tragedy that David Cameron called the referendum - I suppose to settle the matter once and for all. There are only a  few voters (  not including myself) who are able to balance all the complex factors. As Clement Attlee said, referendums are for dictators and demagogues - and  for the latter look at Boris Johnson  ( and in the US context Donald Trump ).It is a confusion to say that letting the people judge is democracy, since democratic structures should place decisions in the hands of those competent to make those decisions, which the electorate is not in most cases.  Decisions should be taken  in parliament, where the MPs are informed of every dimension of the problem ( including the views of their constituents). An  overwhelming majority of MPs are for Remain. That should decide the votes of the electorate

Who will vote for Remain and who for Leave?

This Survey, carried out by Populus, is significant.  Note the heavy support ( large enough to be free of special bias) for Remain from the more educated and the similar support for Leave from the less educated. It is relevant to note also that it is  the young people - who will be most affected by the decision of the referendum -  who are supporting Remain.

Clement Attlee. Labour Prime Minster 1945 to 1951, held that referendums were the devices of dictators and demagogues. (DD)

The Survey

To better understand the differing nature of support for Remain and Leave, we’ve created the Remain Index and the Leave Index.

These compare propensity to vote for Remain and Leave against the national average. In the analysis below, an Index score of 100 is average, showing the group is no more or less likely than average to vote for that side. Scores above 100 indicate a greater level of support, and scores below 100 a lower than average level of support. All analysis is based on more than 8,000 interviews, conducted both online and by telephone, that informed our investigation into the differences between phone and online polling for the UK’s EU membership referendum.

The analysis suggests the Remain and Leave campaigns are appealing to very different voters and that the country is sharply divided on Brexit.

The Remain Index

The strongest supporters for Remain are those in still in full time education. Students are more than 50% more likely than the average voter to back Remain. Relatedly, those aged 18-24 are the 2nd strongest supports of Remain.

Indeed, Remain over-indexes for support across all younger age groups and amongst all university educated groups. Those educated to a higher university degree level are around a third more likely to support Remain than average, with those educated to degree level about a fifth more likely than average to back the UK’s membership of the EU. Like their younger counterparts, those aged 25 – 34 and aged 35 – 44 also disproportionately back Remain.

Geographically, it is Scotland and London that show the strongest support for Remain. Scotland’s Remain Index is 123, while London’s is 115. Those who have travelled abroad in recent years also tend to back the UK remaining in the EU.

Demographically, socio-economic groups AB and C1 both lean towards supporting Britain’s membership of the EU. These groups, broadly speaking, represent Britain’s middle class, professionals, and administrative workers.

The Remain Index reveals the portrait of the strongest supporters of Stronger In: younger voters, those university educated or still studying, in professional roles, and living in London or Scotland.

Politically, the Remain Index delivers few surprises. Remain support is more likely to be drawn from Labour, Liberal Democrat, and SNP voters. Conservative voters are less likely to support Remain and UKIP voters, of course, significantly under-index on support for Remain.